Correlation means there is a relationship or pattern between two different variables. Causation means one variable or event causes another variable or event. The phase "correlation does not imply causation" is a false cause-and-effect relationship between two variables or events. "Correlation implies causation" is questionable when two variables or events occur together with a result. There is no logical conclusion or logical causation even though there is correlation between two variables or events.
We perform analysis to find what happened. A direct causation is A causes B. A reverse causation is B causes A. A common causation is A and B are both caused by C. A bidirectional or cyclic causation is A causes B and B causes A. A coincidence is no connection between A and B. Another explanation is A and B are correlated when A and B change and move together positively or negatively.
There are six reasons correlation does not equal causation. The first is an omitted variable. An omitted variable is a missing variable or missing factor. The second is an incorrect sample selection, incorrect data, missing sample selection, or missing data. The third is a mathematical error. The fourth is difficult to analyze. The fifth is coincidence. A reverse causation is the sixth.
Here are correlation doesn't imply causation examples:
*Ice cream sales and shark attacks increased during the summer months. More people ate ice cream caused more shark attacks. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. There were more people in the beaches during the summer months.
*People who exercised were more likely to get skin cancer. Exercise caused skin cancer. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. Sunlight exposure increased the chances of skin cancer. People reduced skin cancer by exercising more indoors and less outdoors.
*US universities awarded more Master's degrees each year since 1910. Movie theaters earned higher revenues each year since 1910. More people earned Master's degrees led to more people watching movies. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. Global population increased since 1910. More people attended college. More people watched movies.
*The state of Maine divorce rate increased because margarine consumption per capital increased. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. The divorce rate and margarine consumption were a coincidence.
*Pool drownings increased since 1910. Nuclear plants produced nuclear energy increased since 1910. Higher pool drownings caused more nuclear energy production. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. More homes were built with more pools. Nuclear energy became more viable.
*A windmill spinning causes wind. Correlation? No. Causation? No. The wind causes a windmill to spin.
*Drinking too much alcohol caused lung cancer. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. Smoking was a third variable. People who drank too much alcohol also smoked more causing lung cancer.
*The rooster crows when the sun rises in the morning. The rooster causes the sun to rise. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. Coincidence. Obviously, the sun rises every morning.
The human mind likes to find patterns even when they don't exist. We formulate correlation and causation logic. It's important to distinguish between what variables or events to conclude causality. Determining causality is never perfect. In my opinion, concluding logical correlation imply causation is an art.
Update On A Past Blog
I wrote Did The Greatest Human Generation Doom Their Grandchildren And Their Future? on Mar 14, 2019. Millennials or Generation Y born between 1981 and 1996 and Zoomers or Generation Z born between 1997 and 2012 ask themselves why have children? Some of the present problems influence these two generations no raising families. The present problems include no retirement security, numerous wildfires, hotter summers, unaffordable childcare, expensive housing, mass shootings, and too much consumption. Generation Y and Generation Z may blame Generation X for artificial intelligence and robots replacing opportunities. Further, Generation Y and Generation Z may blame their grandparents during the Baby Boomers generation. Perhaps, the Baby Boomers forgot the tough lessons and rough lessons taught from their parents.
There is a pattern. Every generation blames the previous generation or previous two generations.
Here is the generation breakdown by the years people born in descending order:
*Generation Alpha: 2013-present
*Generation Z Zoomers: 1997-2012
*Generation Y Millennials: 1981-1996
*Generation X: 1965-1980
*Baby Boomers: 1946-1964
*Silent Generation: 1928-1945
*Greatest Generation: 1901-1927
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