Many Breaks For Some People

Many successful people tell their reasons for success are hard work, good education, up-to-date skills, and networking. True. Many successful people withhold telling the accurate reason for success is breaks. The successful people are given the opportunities. The successful people are at the right place at the right time. Fortunate timing and good luck favor them. Support is available. There are generational hand-me downs. Parents, executives, extended family members, senior management, and/or close friends provide resources and fast-tracked career paths.

Today's Information Age good breaks and lucky bounces are the utmost importance. There are too many people. There are not enough opportunities to satisfy the number of people seeking opportunities. The costs are higher for training and education. Resources are expensive. Nothing is getting cheaper. The job employment market the supply is greater than the demand. The higher education market the demand is greater than the supply. Life is unfair.

Going Back To The Gym

I went back to the gym yesterday on Sun Mar 17, 2024 for the first time since Mon Mar 16, 2020. It was exactly four years ago yesterday Governor Gavin Newsom shut down the state of California due to the COVID-19 global pandemic. I've been working out at home with my mini gym. My mini gym consists of two adjustable dumbbells from 2.5lbs to 50lbs, a 25lb plate, a 45lb plate, and a workout mat.

I was rusty. The gym changed the name for marketing purposes. I recognized almost all of the equipment including machines, cardio, and free weights. The gym expanded the astro turf section. Almost all of the new equipment was found in the free weight section. The mini gym succeeded maintaining my physical strength. I could still bench press 135lbs two sets and 12 reps. I felt sore last night and today.

There is no comparison between a mini gym and a full gym. People who say a mini gym substitutes a full gym to avoid gym fees and to stay home for convenience shortchange their physical benefits. It was like when I changed job industries decades ago from commercial real estate to technology. The skills and knowledge in commercial real estate were inadequate in technology. I struggled for months learning new skills and unlearning my incorrect training.

I continue working out at home and going to the gym. The present weekly workout plan is two days jogging around the neighborhood, one day mini gym, and one day at the gym. The choices working out at the gym and working out at home gives me flexibility.

Correlation Does Not Imply Causation Short Education

Correlation means there is a relationship or pattern between two different variables. Causation means one variable or event causes another variable or event. The phase "correlation does not imply causation" is a false cause-and-effect relationship between two variables or events. "Correlation implies causation" is questionable when two variables or events occur together with a result. There is no logical conclusion or logical causation even though there is correlation between two variables or events.

We perform analysis to find what happened. A direct causation is A causes B. A reverse causation is B causes A. A common causation is A and B are both caused by C. A bidirectional or cyclic causation is A causes B and B causes A. A coincidence is no connection between A and B. Another explanation is A and B are correlated when A and B change and move together positively or negatively.

There are six reasons correlation does not equal causation. The first is an omitted variable. An omitted variable is a missing variable or missing factor. The second is an incorrect sample selection, incorrect data, missing sample selection, or missing data. The third is a mathematical error. The fourth is difficult to analyze. The fifth is coincidence. A reverse causation is the sixth.

Here are correlation doesn't imply causation examples:

*Ice cream sales and shark attacks increased during the summer months. More people ate ice cream caused more shark attacks. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. There were more people in the beaches during the summer months.
*People who exercised were more likely to get skin cancer. Exercise caused skin cancer. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. Sunlight exposure increased the chances of skin cancer. People reduced skin cancer by exercising more indoors and less outdoors.
*US universities awarded more Master's degrees each year since 1910. Movie theaters earned higher revenues each year since 1910. More people earned Master's degrees led to more people watching movies. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. Global population increased since 1910. More people attended college. More people watched movies.
*The state of Maine divorce rate increased because margarine consumption per capital increased. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. The divorce rate and margarine consumption were a coincidence.
*Pool drownings increased since 1910. Nuclear plants produced nuclear energy increased since 1910. Higher pool drownings caused more nuclear energy production. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. More homes were built with more pools. Nuclear energy became more viable.
*A windmill spinning causes wind. Correlation? No. Causation? No. The wind causes a windmill to spin.
*Drinking too much alcohol caused lung cancer. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. Smoking was a third variable. People who drank too much alcohol also smoked more causing lung cancer.
*The rooster crows when the sun rises in the morning. The rooster causes the sun to rise. Correlation? Yes. Causation? No. Coincidence. Obviously, the sun rises every morning.

The human mind likes to find patterns even when they don't exist. We formulate correlation and causation logic. It's important to distinguish between what variables or events to conclude causality. Determining causality is never perfect. In my opinion, concluding logical correlation imply causation is an art.

Update On A Past Blog

I wrote Did The Greatest Human Generation Doom Their Grandchildren And Their Future? on Mar 14, 2019. Millennials or Generation Y born between 1981 and 1996 and Zoomers or Generation Z born between 1997 and 2012 ask themselves why have children? Some of the present problems influence these two generations no raising families. The present problems include no retirement security, numerous wildfires, hotter summers, unaffordable childcare, expensive housing, mass shootings, and too much consumption. Generation Y and Generation Z may blame Generation X for artificial intelligence and robots replacing opportunities. Further, Generation Y and Generation Z may blame their grandparents during the Baby Boomers generation. Perhaps, the Baby Boomers forgot the tough lessons and rough lessons taught from their parents.

There is a pattern. Every generation blames the previous generation or previous two generations.

Here is the generation breakdown by the years people born in descending order:

*Generation Alpha: 2013-present
*Generation Z Zoomers: 1997-2012
*Generation Y Millennials: 1981-1996
*Generation X: 1965-1980
*Baby Boomers: 1946-1964
*Silent Generation: 1928-1945
*Greatest Generation: 1901-1927

Raymond Mar Political Opinions

Government system: Democratic
Political party: Republican. I'm anti-Trump.
Liberal, conservative, or moderate: Moderate
Economic system: Capitalism
LGBTQ recognition: Pro
Income tax: Flat tax system
Sales tax: Against
Legalize marijuana or cannabis: Yes
Gun policy right to bear arms: Pro
Abortion woman's right to choose: Pro
Schools teach cursive handwriting: Yes
Students attend more years in school: Transition kindergarten mandatory, grades K-5 primary school, grades 6-9 junior high, grades 10-13 high school
Fund police: Yes
Fund military: Yes
Fund fire: Yes
Universal basic income: Federal government pays US citizens $2,000 per month no questions asked
Immigration reform: Yes. Limit immigration is yes. Limit H1B visas is yes. American citizens are priority.
Mexican and US border wall: Yes
Rent control: Against
COVID-19 mandatory mask requirement: Yes. The mask mandate ends when people no longer need to wear masks in health care facilities.
Affordable Care Act or Obamacare: Against
Climate change: Pro. Tough changes and sacrifices required.
Government pays for free community college: Against
Fund Planned Parenthood: Yes
Death penalty: Pro; however, if the costs are too high, then against
Women in combat: Against
Euthanasia: Pro
Minimum wage or living wage: Yes
Affirmative Action: Against

More opinions can be found at ISideWith...

Update On A Past Blog

There is a Reddit post about US students behind in education The public needs to know the ugly truth. Students are SIGNIFICANTLY behind. on Feb 23, 2024. The Original Poster (OP) teaches high school. The OP listed what students can't do such as read at a high school level, write complete sentences, spell simple words, round numbers, calculate percentages, and no research skills. Multiple posts said today's students use calculators for simple math such as 4+6. Multiple posts said today's students improperly Google search for information and Google search to learn.

I wrote SOMT: Calculators Are Allowed on Jun 13, 2021 teachers allowed students to use calculators anytime. It started in my senior year in high school. My junior year in high school and my previous school years calculators were not allowed in tests. The teachers wanted to teach the math concepts and math theories.

I'm not a professional educator. Perhaps, education administrators need to go back to the old school days. Bring back phonics. Bring back flash cards. Bring back learning fun and games. Bring back practice, drills, memorization, practice, drills, memorization, practice, drills, memorization. Bring back learning the basics of the basics. Minimize use of calculators. Minimize use of computers. Minimize use of the internet. Eliminate distractions. If the use of computers and internet are approved, then teach students how to Google properly.

The 10 Percent Physical Is Much Bigger With 90 Percent Mental

A common success formula is 10% physical and 90% mental. The formula applies to sports, to many physical activities, and professional action activities. The 10% physical mathematically speaking is 10% out of 100%. However, the 10% is much bigger conceptually speaking.

Many people believe mental health is the most important in a human. Many people say good mental status is the top priority. A common knowledge mind, body, and spirit are important for a successful life. Many people neglect body and spirit. My easy definition of spirit is sleep. Sleep eight hours a night.

I speak counterintuitively. The body or the physical is below the brain. The physical or the body is the most important. I include oral hygiene, bathing, grooming, and body nurturing as part of them. A poor physical health makes mental health maintenance difficult. Exercise. Eat healthy. Minimize processed foods. Do all the above sincerely. Motivation is strengthen. The chances of depression decrease. Never stop learning. Innovate infinitely. Earn happiness with courage.

The person's look doesn't lie. The physical appearance tells the truth. The story is told by presentation.

Underachieve And Did Nothing About It

I dreamed last night I was an options trader about to be laid off. The company founder and CEO was Roseanne Barr.

I worked at a four story freestanding building. I rarely traded options because I'm conservative. I rarely cold called. My commissions earned was petty. One particular option was a call option for the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) stock. A call option is a bet the stock price for DIA increases. The call option owner has the right and not the obligation to buy 100 shares of DIA for every one option of DIA at the call option price before a particular date. The DIA stock price must be at the call option price or above for the call option owner to buy the 100 shares. The call option price is called the strike price.

I was responsible for one DIA call option at a particular strike price. The DIA stock price traded above the strike price. I exercised my right for one DIA option to buy 100 shares. I kept the remaining options as options. My computer screen showed I was responsible for three call options. Three is too little for a professional options trader. The reader should deduce I was unqualified. The reader should also deduce I was lazy.

Enter Roseanne Barr

Barr walked to my station. She wanted to talk to me. I followed her from the third floor to her office on the first floor. The center of the building was an atrium with indoor trees and plants. We entered through a thick glass door. There was a waiting room consisting of ten chairs like a waiting room in a doctor's office. Barr told me to wait. I was the only person. Time passed. More people entered the waiting room. One person was a co-worker. He told me I was getting laid off. Barr entered the waiting room immediately. She became angry at my co-worker because I was informed of my laid off before she told me.

Barr told me she's ready for our conversation. We entered her office. Barr explained the reasons for being laid off. The reasons were standard: poor performance, lack of motivation to become a better worker, and the recession. I said, "The company is going to be bankrupt because fewer option traders and fewer clients buying and selling options." She acknowledged money spending is tightening.

Barr ran another business on the first floor. She was the owner of a spa. She offered me a one hour massage as part of my severance. I thought about the message. I woke up.

Shelter In-Place COVID-19 Blog February 2024

California issued shelter in-place orders on Tue Mar 17, 2020. I have been logging the highlights and lowlights. Headlines increased in Jan has decreased in Feb. Very few people wear masks after the winter surge.

Thur Feb 1. Shopped at Safeway and Lucky first thing in the morning.

A Center For Disease Control (CDC) study concluded the latest COVID-19 vaccine is 54% effective at preventing exposure to COVID-19; in addition, 49% effective against the JN.1 variant. The study looked at 9,000 people who received the vaccine at CVS and Walgreens pharmacies. Other countries reported similar conclusions. The latest CDC data stated 22% of US adults and 11% of US children received the latest vaccine.

Mon Feb 5. The CDC estimated 93.1% of COVID-19 infections is the JN.1 variant. There were signs the spread slowed. The South was the only US area the virus rose from wastewater detection. Early research concluded the JN.1 is not worse than previous strains in terms of severity.

Tue Feb 6. Shopped at Costco Business Center and got gas at Chevron.

Sat Feb 10. Busy at Costco during the 12pm hour. Very few people wore masks.

Sun Feb 11. Super Bowl LVIII.

Mon Feb 19. Researchers from the Global Vaccine Data Network released a study in the journal Vaccine. The study found an increase in neurological, blood, and heart related medical conditions for those who received certain types of mRNA vaccines. The conditions included heart muscle inflammation, blood clots in the brain, spinal cord inflammation, brain swelling, and Guillain-Barre syndrome. Guillain-Barre syndrome is a neurological disorder for which the immune system attacks the nervous system.

Fri Feb 23. 2012 Olympic gold gymnastics champion Gabby Douglas tested positive for COVID-19 at the Winter Cup. She withdrew from the competition.

Tue Feb 27. Errands at Firestone, Costco, Lucky, Harbor Freight, Toyota, a local library, and Goodwill.

Wed Feb 28. High risk people and people age 65 and older should receive a booster in the spring. The CDC said the booster offers the best protection for a summer surge; however, the CDC recommendation was unofficial because the director Dr. Mandy Cohen must sign off. Historical trends point to winter and summer waves. An official CDC recommendation is needed for health insurance providers to cover the COVID-19 booster cost. The booster is administered at least four months after the previous dose or at least three months after a COVID-19 infection.

The booster is the same vaccine approved last fall for the XBB.1.5 subvariant and effective against the JN.1 subvariant which caused 96% of new US COVID-19 infections in fall 2023. Weekly hospitalizations dropped from 35,000 in early Jan to 20,000 as of Feb 7.

Thur Feb 29. Power outage from 9:02am to 10:29am.